Media Management

Global Media Inflation Set to Fall to Lowest Level since 2014, excluding 2020 Pandemic Dip

Overall media inflation globally is forecast to be at 3.1% in 2026, down slightly from forecasts of 3.8% in 2025, according to ECI Media Management’s 2026 Media Inflation Report, just released.

View the full report here.

3.1% is the lowest that overall global media inflation has been since 2014, with the exception of 2020 – the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Factors behind this slowdown include declining headline CPI inflation and a general cooling off of the media market in general following a couple of years of high demand.

The report, which is now released earlier in order to support advertisers’ investment decisions, shows that Global Offline and Online forecasts for 2026 are lower than 2025 predictions; Offline is set to decrease to 2.8% versus 3.6% forecast for 2025, while projections indicate that Online inflation will be at 3.4% in 2026 compared to 3.9% in 2025.

Inflation for every medium has also decreased marginally compared to 2025 predictions.

The medium expected to see the highest inflation in 2026 is OOH with 4.2%, followed by Online Video with 4.1%. TV is at 3.2%, Online Display at 2.7%, and the media with the lowest forecasts are Radio at 1.1% and Print at 0.6%. While there has been a moderation for all media types, this is so slight in each case that it can reasonably be described as stability across the board.

Regional differences across North America, EMEA, LATAM and APAC

There are disparities between the global picture and that of each region. In North America, all media are forecast to see marginally increased inflation in 2026, but this is offset globally by more significant decreases across the other three regions, leading to the declining global forecasts.

LATAM is forecast to have the highest overall inflation at 6.4%; EMEA and APAC are predicted to see very similar levels; 3.2% in the former and 3.7% in the latter. North American inflation projections are slightly lower, at 2.5%.

All media types across all regions are forecast to remain inflationary, with the exception of Print in North America.

Media pricing is of course very entwined with both the broader advertising and tech industries, but also the global economy.

While stable growth does appear to slowly be becoming a reality, there are significant headwinds in many parts of the world in the form of stubborn CPI inflation, increased trade tensions, geopolitical conflict and other challenges which affect business confidence and therefore media investment.

North America

Overall media inflation is forecast to increase slightly in 2026, from the 2.3% forecast for 2025 to 2.5%.

This is in part down to the boost in media spend in the United States because of the midterm elections and the FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted across the US, Canada and Mexico; the increased demand will be sufficient to lift TV out of the slight deflation predicted for 2025 and into inflation.

That said, Print and Radio are set to dis-inflate in 2026, with the former falling into deflation and Radio flat.

PJ Leary, Head of North America at ECI Media Management, commented on the findings of the report, “The overarching theme at a global level is one of stability and moderation, and while this is reflected generally in North America, we do see some significant movement from 2025 to 2026 in terms of TV lifting out of deflation, and Print moving into deflationary territory”

Leary continues “There are multiple factors at play here; the crucial midterm elections in the US will cause demand to surge as we expect to see record levels of media investment, particularly in DMAs within battleground states, while the FIFA World Cup – hosted in summer 2026 with the majority of matches scheduled in the US – will also drive a spike in demand”

“Of course, there is a background hum of economic and geopolitical uncertainty which will underpin all 2026 media and marketing investment decisions.

This makes it all the more important to ensure that investments are precise, transparent and based on data-driven insights, so that every ad dollar drives media value and business impact.”

Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Overall inflation in EMEA – the second biggest region globally – is forecast to decline by 2.1pp to 3.2% in 2026 compared to 2025 forecasts. This is reflected in inflation for each media type in the region, which are all expected to decline by between one and four percentage points.

A relatively sharp drop in TV inflation in the region is reflective of both declining CPI inflation and lessened demand after the Olympics and Men’s Euros in 2024.

Forecasts indicate that Offline inflation will decrease from 6.4% in the region in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026. Online will see a smaller drop, of 1.6pp to 2.8%; this is slightly more pronounced in Online Display than in Online Video.

Media inflation in the region’s three largest markets – the UK, Germany and France – is projected to be broadly similar in 2026, with most media inflation between 0% and 5%.

TV is expected to be the most inflationary medium in all three countries, while Print will be the least inflationary in the UK and France, and just slightly above OOH and Online Display in Germany.

Fredrik Kinge, ECI Media Management’s Global CEO, commented on the findings, “Media inflation in EMEA is forecast to moderate in 2026, with Offline and Online declining from 2026 levels.

The running theme of this report is stability and that is reflected in the case of EMEA. All media types are expected to inflate by between 0% and 5% regionally, with TV at the higher end of that range and Print at the bottom”

Kinge continues “In the UK, we are seeing a convergence of all media types except Print, which is forecast to maintain the deflationary position it has taken for most of the last few years. After a volatile few years, TV looks set to be settling at around the 3.5% mark. Online Display and Online Video are in the middle of the pack, with the latter slightly more inflationary than the former”

“This stabilising media inflation is happening against a backdrop of sluggish economic growth in Europe, although there are some signs that this is changing after a stagnant period.

As with the rest of the world, trade tensions, geopolitical conflict, stubborn inflation in some countries and increased business caution are some of the factors dampening government efforts to accelerate growth.

In this context, precise, targeted and transparent media investment, always based on data-driven insights, is crucial in order to drive higher media value and, ultimately, business value.”

Asia Pacific

Overall media inflation in APAC is forecast to decrease slightly in 2026 versus 2025 predictions, from 4.1% to 3.7%. Offline and Online forecasts are very similar, and no media type is expected to see a drastic change compared to 2025 positions. Online Video is forecast to see the highest inflation, at 4.4%, while Print is predicted to see the lowest, at 1.1%.

Media inflation in China and India, the two biggest markets in the region, broadly reflects the stable nature of inflation in the wider region. Overall Chinese inflation in 2026 is forecast to drop very slightly to 2.8%; Online will drop by the same very small amount and Offline is expected to remain the same.

In India, inflation is higher but forecasts indicate that changes versus 2025 will be marginal; overall inflation is forecast to drop by just 0.1pp to 8.7%, and Online and Offline will show similar changes, despite OOH inflation.

George Patten, Head of Asia Pacific at ECI Media Management, commented on the report’s findings, “We are seeing very stable media inflation forecasts for the Asia Pacific region in 2026, although of course there are variances at a local level.

Regional media inflation, and that of key markets including India and China, is forecast to change only slightly compared to 2025 levels, a sign of increasing maturity in the regional media landscape”

Patten continues “Asia remains the world’s engine of growth, and GDP growth in the region, while more moderate in 2025 and 2026 than in previous years, is still the envy of much of the West. That said, the increasing trade tensions resulting from aggressive trade policy coming out of Washington DC and retaliation are weighing on business confidence, meaning that budgets are being cut”

“With this in mind, careful media investment decisions based on data-driven insight and that prioritise transparency are more critical than ever so that media and advertising can be a powerhouse of business value and growth.”

Latan America

Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025 is projected by the IMF to maintain its 2024 level of 2.4%, but will slow very slightly to 2.3% in 2026 (IMF).

This slowdown reflects lingering inflation pressures, the fading of the post-pandemic rebound and the impact of trade tensions, particularly with the United States.

Brazil, the largest economy in the region, is forecast by the OECD to see growth of 2.3% in 2025, a fall compared to the 3.4% of 2024. It is set to see a further drop in 2026, to 1.7% (OECD).

This slowdown is being caused by high interest rates (nearing a two-decade high) and tight monetary policy to combat stubborn inflation. Reduced fiscal stimulation is also a factor, as is the impact of changing trade policy in the United States, which has decreased exports of goods such as coffee, sugar and oranges.

After expanding by 1.4% in 2024, the economy of Mexico, the region’s second biggest economy, is forecast by the OECD to grow by 0.8% – a slowdown versus the 1.4% seen in 2024.

The OECD expects growth to pick up to 1.3% in 2026. Mexico is particularly reliant on trade with the United States which makes it vulnerable to aggressive trade policies from Washington DC.

Although low unemployment and easing inflation are expected to support household consumption in 2026, overall growth will remain below previous levels.

Argentina stands out as a regional success story. The IMF projects 4.5% growth in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 – a significant improvement on 2024’s -1.3%.

This strong growth is partly driven by the new government’s reform program which is aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, including fiscal consolidation, reduced inflation and new investment initiatives.

There has also been a rebound in export sectors. The notoriously high inflation of recent years is forecast to drop from 41.3% in 2025 to 16.4% in 2026.

Looking ahead, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to remain modest, with the IMF forecasting 2.4% growth in 2026. The region continues to face high debt levels and persistent inflation.

External uncertainty also poses challenges, particularly due to its exposure to United States trade policies and global economic conditions.

The World Bank highlights ongoing structural issues such as limited access to finance, weak infrastructure, and inefficiencies in labour markets, which remain key obstacles to achieving sustainable economic growth.

Annual Reports

ECI Media Management’s annual Media Inflation Report forecasts media inflation for six key media channels each year; TV, Online Display, Online Video, Print, OOH and Radio, at a global and regional level and across 50 countries.

It is critical that advertisers have access to independent inflation measurement and forecast in order to be able to make the right media investment decisions for their brands.

ECI Media Management’s experts have been tracking media inflation since 2012, providing unique understanding of trends over time. The information is derived from a number of sources, including their global network of experts, real client data and media agencies.

It is cross-referenced with industry bodies and publications, as well as with agency traders and media vendors, so it reflects the expertise of those with an impact on trading variables.